The Projectivist Theory of Probability

What does it mean to say that the probability that a coin lands heads is ½? One might think that the coin will either land upward or it will not, the probability is not a feature of the world, but rather just a measure of our own ignorance.

Frank Ramsey (see his collected papers, edited by D. H. Mellor) and Bruno de Finetti,^{[citation needed]} developed projectivist theories of probability in the early twentieth century. To explain their theories, the concept of degree of belief must first be introduced.

Let us say that a person has a degree of belief of 1 in a particular proposition if he completely convinced of its truth. For example, most people have a degree of belief of 1 in the proposition that 2+2=4. On the other hand, a person has a degree of belief 0 in a proposition if he is utterly convinced of its falsity; most people have a degree of belief of zero in the proposition that 2+2=5. Intermediate values are possible. A man who thinks that his dog has stolen the sausages, but is not completely sure, might have a degree of belief of 0.8 in the proposition that his dog stole the sausages.

For each person A, we can define a (partial) function CA mapping the set of propositions to the closed interval [0, 1] by stipulating that for a proposition P CA(P)=t if and only it C has a degree of belief t in the proposition P. Ramsey and de Finetti independently attempted to show that if A is rational, CA is a probability function: that is, CA satisfies the standard (Kolmogorov) probability axioms.

They supposed that when I describe an event has having probability P I am really voicing my degrees of belief. Probabilities are not real features of the world.

For example, when I say that the event that the coin lands heads up has probability ½, I do so because my degree of belief in the proposition that the coin will land heads up is ½.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projectivism

Fads?

Fads are economical trends that gain popularity as their economic value increases, the internet has as a result become more popular and a larger fad due to its economic value.  The internet is just another form of advertising that makes a lot of money to the people pulling the stings.  THE INTERNET IS A FAD

Fools Gold

Interestingly “Ten ways to lose a guy” played on CityTV last night, starting the same actors as the upcoming film “Fools Gold.”

The SuperBowl

The super bowl is a fad
one that is quite bad
watching it makes me feel sad
and a little bit mad.

Happiness is a fad

It is a fad to be happy because the sources of happiness are always changing and the type of happiness is changing, today playing Call of Duty 4 may make me happy, but tomorrow that will just not do.  Happiness as a product is doing well though, ‘Happiness is playing BINGO.’

Macs suck

the other day i was at a mac store, i started to make a slide show presentation describing the crapage of macs but decided against it, i did however come to this conclusion; Apple has GOOD advertising. People are stupid and like to buy into hype, that’s why Apple is popular.

Current Fads:

1. Atheism
2. The recession
3. Oil
4. The writers strike
5. Environmentalism
6. Global Warming
7. The Internet

novelog

this is a test to see if one can create reactions check out http://novelog.com

The Internet is a Fad

whats the difference between a fad and a trend?